current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0961 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.294 False
psi 0.1428 False
delta_h1 -0.8318 True
delta_h2 3.9174 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 0.6132 True
price 0.6951 True
risk 0.0 False
-- 
number of parameters:  10
number of free parameters:  4
current parameter status : 
sigma 2.0961 False
beta 0.97 False
phi 0.294 False
psi 0.1428 False
delta_h1 -0.8318 True
delta_h2 3.9174 True
eta 0.0 False
tfp 0.6132 True
price 0.6951 True
risk 0.0 False
- using these moments:
mshare 0.0810895 0.0015890899138771113
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.0038247869093696683
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.042802085057595626
grad2 1.0224902629343955 0.025640863777636667
grad3 1.01079964221033 0.026196331835739127
grad4 1.0392741459989943 0.023583406070423408
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.010131896476812183
f =  288.62709409079554 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.1051093115666835
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153608
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.23405725681386416
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0233169803197273
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0423615440376859
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0706082492722295
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6695983813248755
f =  190.08733789190484 , pars =  [-0.73184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.09969117678371732
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.980107395615362
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.26218259635684305
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0215628526907816
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.039529764956618
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0666362391331587
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6727080694361974
f =  149.47919193896257 , pars =  [-0.83184551  4.01740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.09658867074561496
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9820004272105929
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.23984014248308938
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0196926540991706
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.036317870176876
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0608811371213391
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6742748830972601
f =  204.25534424515578 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.71321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08015975213869825
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801074121290354
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.40479781292791805
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0178191165499075
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0316238536764408
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0464530194637718
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.8814013616570953
f =  469.30207157805074 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.79507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.11376269677793656
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153604
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2648589566038005
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0272120323543819
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0498184268535233
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0726768417768568
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6791599578102965
f =  398.7439552805533 , pars =  [-0.93184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.11018049829296933
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.980107395615361
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.2146525767669995
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0241567938612925
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0446962138634244
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0760922655343677
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6692328496469618
f =  465.69120261802937 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.81740726  0.61321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.11340360207559072
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9780152721493119
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.23282079139748946
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0257894175508235
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0473949807312646
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0789510305243264
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6754139744643295
f =  2216.1811992914645 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.51321151  0.69507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.1438069335614939
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801073956153583
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.13165782733467213
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0249206151973016
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0461597971505587
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.082829118163586
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.4858510722700299
f =  83.62228912225886 , pars =  [-0.83184551  3.91740726  0.61321151  0.59507603]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.09062471896431651
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.98010739561536
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.29635893224011384
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0186580143990145
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0344462509395502
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0579498592862835
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6748649093707709
f =  119.97407328025805 , pars =  [-0.80018285  3.9642484   0.65977212  0.52699158]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.06527222509246773
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9810177016165188
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.4436979044058141
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0167851839358402
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.029714523709785
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.042382906617702
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7659518504409536
f =  40.06970058089681 , pars =  [-0.84865079  3.89395416  0.65216409  0.58281915]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07667539894324073
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9796353384132205
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.4383827723773986
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0154949722862006
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0273503844368876
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0399331128210434
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.785750659919268
f =  31.17286917767995 , pars =  [-0.82355809  3.92906819  0.64945368  0.60791924]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07673307746518661
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9803380147970314
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.4236287031787971
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0157489265641015
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0279717006124938
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0407976595017217
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7760568388109713
f =  17.200485238291392 , pars =  [-0.81975604  3.9185814   0.64736455  0.6131592 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08443459526068926
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9801307387402839
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.36836540883209956
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0201600794475087
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.036092281938096
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0530694869986728
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7156845907078789
f =  7.896952905911671 , pars =  [-0.80134048  3.90518552  0.64296133  0.60383024]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08179535947947741
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798627817814628
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3827877909428382
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0185025104736605
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.032853818762175
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0485696859178764
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7327161699564774
f =  71.05834439095217 , pars =  [-0.80588559  3.88370203  0.64357285  0.61576455]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.09059633738690796
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9794254835012017
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.36154577296197904
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.022039854486284
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0392790220294241
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.057444757074709
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6855730083488927
f =  40.79961119655239 , pars =  [-0.79800561  3.90309793  0.6520573   0.60516585]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07643448346276711
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798206995943363
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.4385791505245448
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0156601845668283
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.027588223680377
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0398139728074012
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7853400403222779
f =  96.61826384081098 , pars =  [-0.79957442  3.91155726  0.63807517  0.59813749]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.0892928673453872
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9799906830215181
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3382840694483447
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0230884981761652
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0409622709619692
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0604835948342817
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.6593649586718022
f =  8.659010140334493 , pars =  [-0.79558231  3.90749165  0.64029177  0.61120578]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08217235884799201
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9799091673186998
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3894840835764523
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0183565650415156
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0326144715877523
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0477740267789297
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7326363360454323
f =  19.84791946034365 , pars =  [-0.80257409  3.89742486  0.6371416   0.60592334]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08500253677962061
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9797058956624307
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3700334950326836
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0194328260289618
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0345891487769343
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0513608741500893
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.712565977914486
f =  11.434362744425332 , pars =  [-0.80808014  3.90207497  0.64541554  0.59759499]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08232980031427722
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798000464350928
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3900394934499237
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.019172118619843
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0338538652357125
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0493863391528038
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7221177199201144
f =  12.432432863691583 , pars =  [-0.80912479  3.90723027  0.64113912  0.60947852]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.07992200308665211
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9799039153154419
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.40277714509962503
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0161754734802382
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0287858972190078
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0431048702488193
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7587508640347592
f =  8.060839761857864 , pars =  [-0.79444152  3.89928854  0.64042217  0.60048621]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08140598569954648
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9797436821082438
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.39146945783060016
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0180046915335108
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0319100415662663
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.047055747409312
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7332571716440442
f =  7.947893697907061 , pars =  [-0.79574654  3.89780758  0.64297449  0.60760828]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08192202667486194
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.979713661042612
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3909564170808552
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.018520403539682
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0329430862281441
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.048458997559243
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7374707764727695
f =  9.378074803425202 , pars =  [-0.80118198  3.9075184   0.64424393  0.6080596 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08039954255116769
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9799097047029628
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.4042865920956795
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0178536778117353
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.031754290521866
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0462365384570838
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7462970518049923
f =  14.108542574856314 , pars =  [-0.8019872   3.90504252  0.64343526  0.60324999]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.0831501219016818
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798599018747032
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3840159053809497
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0197799865170474
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0351652927949364
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.051107056700527
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7174961821556431
f =  9.941619380266651 , pars =  [-0.80002512  3.90447005  0.64183519  0.60548545]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08269126341910966
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.979848368952139
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3807715980598822
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.018645541862704
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0331011524313827
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0489514895716636
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7261545324884215
f =  18.028174539136028 , pars =  [-0.80211412  3.90521203  0.64247666  0.60423753]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08381900021796056
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798633155661576
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.38126565785715977
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0196918553661658
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.035159877013216
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0513321594287925
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7117809916722645
f =  8.87101842684817 , pars =  [-0.80047999  3.90560024  0.64323307  0.6037131 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08150556351891151
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798711311902362
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.39583015230095375
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0187425560971624
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.033236257274124
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0482252890430162
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.731926297977816
f =  19.577624407540036 , pars =  [-0.8012038   3.90471214  0.64374757  0.60420313]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08418541919139974
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798532469243443
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3759062801021476
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0200573155718626
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0355896142829213
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0522849725042804
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7100529409441784
f =  9.576884779362533 , pars =  [-0.80109574  3.9047844   0.64237406  0.60317121]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08247845880516867
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798547027173848
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3777137437027361
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0189808589514318
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0337279536599955
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0498928309327176
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7261496435814788
f =  16.805029746607403 , pars =  [-0.80130283  3.905957    0.64251669  0.6033767 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08390975260507626
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798783112153538
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.367693707964023
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.019895443750096
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0353467381545631
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0522591700633774
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7130995834970324
f =  8.001058206838273 , pars =  [-0.80077228  3.90559377  0.64278693  0.60452311]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08184819603804314
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798710009825645
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3835386327037609
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0183675175330853
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0326277533143018
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0482761138836043
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7324623325839164
f =  9.478512301979226 , pars =  [-0.80089804  3.90459352  0.64252968  0.6043474 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08243341453131342
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798508570334484
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.381747082273597
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.018865368216549
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0335466225115515
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0495910674589164
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7272305950813673
f =  28.711218763656035 , pars =  [-0.80094305  3.9052457   0.6429105   0.60382382]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08505020912109451
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798639935791422
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.37475093880293403
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.020329825438831
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0363078136517063
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.053009439421478
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7002014079230628
f =  8.457416908395476 , pars =  [-0.80137304  3.90517529  0.64301473  0.60375289]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08173573043224373
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798625757631505
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.38796600617167254
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0187160411580187
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0332807302837341
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0489264283038007
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7314522766674386
f =  8.762461514406363 , pars =  [-0.8015038   3.90517317  0.6429492   0.60394888]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08196424215663471
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798625329727713
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3871166700400919
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0188347661274508
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0334246802821045
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0487624638455295
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7301837408747892
f =  9.586595584843066 , pars =  [-0.80133445  3.90509454  0.64292135  0.60383963]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08231756383862368
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798609495891649
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3803938483458222
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0190356412238164
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0340614642292485
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.050390961894251
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7262989602008084
f =  20.127566195129646 , pars =  [-0.80136409  3.90526676  0.64298343  0.60387877]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08418241670686752
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798644174992659
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3751067421359655
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0196817078885145
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0351220942658832
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0518675094719105
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7089709351854075
f =  9.444590242392062 , pars =  [-0.8013652   3.90523915  0.64289172  0.6037894 ]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08217070735941469
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798638616648054
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.38633580441569565
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0189649611286153
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0336836465578445
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0495658329165896
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7277068635824191
f =  9.134052332487904 , pars =  [-0.80131563  3.90516389  0.64291372  0.60374871]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08246677767478866
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.979862346234608
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.37517017330668423
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.019920788554958
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0349760581427305
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0512582251535487
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7278013556265402
f =  8.700675058784135 , pars =  [-0.80131807  3.90514183  0.64304064  0.60386628]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08160761866578398
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798619018803314
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3922703754115188
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0187185665634808
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0333865336969046
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0487606497596613
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7315772000729384
f =  7.771652549669302 , pars =  [-0.80142637  3.90515522  0.642922    0.60381765]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08188495695694471
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798621714789939
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3796622223738998
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0184620525671684
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0327946679174829
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.048776435010431
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7325608889552604
f =  9.50104467527472 , pars =  [-0.80140727  3.90515634  0.64287288  0.60390263]
- current state of moments (data, sim):
mshare 0.0810895 0.08226245109555248
trans_fromgood 0.971979076994224 0.9798621940178838
trans_frombad 0.3215039071814656 0.3859908110401852
grad2 1.0224902629343955 1.0189860182826387
grad3 1.01079964221033 1.0336422801550815
grad4 1.0392741459989943 1.0490615011350286
tfp 0.7399708689473028 0.7276155596788596
estimation did converge, now computing standard errors...
             value   free        se
name                               
sigma     2.096055  False       NaN
beta      0.970000  False       NaN
phi       0.294007  False       NaN
psi       0.142842  False       NaN
delta_h1 -0.801426   True  0.006883
delta_h2  3.905155   True  0.070064
eta       0.000000  False       NaN
tfp       0.642922   True  0.039018
price     0.604818   True  0.006259
risk      0.000000  False       NaN
